Ethereum forecast FAQ
Answers about the live ETH probability forecast, frozen model, HIT/MISS outcomes, update frequency and forward validation.
What does Crypto Prediction Today predict?
The current model estimates the probability that ETH trades at least 4% below its forecast anchor during the following 24 hours.
Is the probability an exact ETH price target?
No. A 20% probability means roughly a one-in-five estimated chance of the defined 4% downside event, not a prediction that ETH will fall 20%.
How often are forecasts created?
The collector works from completed hourly candles and attempts to publish inside a strict timing window after the relevant candle becomes available.
Can the model change during forward validation?
No. The current model weights, feature set, target and probability calibration remain frozen during the validation period.
What is HIT versus MISS?
After the 24-hour horizon, HIT means ETH reached at least 4% below the anchor during the window. MISS means it did not.
Why is the forward gate in WARMUP?
The gate cannot be eligible until at least 60 days and 1,200 resolved forecasts have accumulated, even if early metrics look strong.
Does this provide financial advice?
No. Crypto Prediction Today is a research product showing probabilistic forecasts and validation results.